Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Divine WinesWhat's In A Name?

I just got this great question of Andreas Wiedow, who asked me What's a divine wine?. And I can assure you this question got me thinking?

Well in order to be able to tell you what is a divine wine, let?s take a look at the definition of divine.

DIVINE ? A DEFINITION

A definition taken from the Webster dictionary.

Divine: 1 a : of, relating to, or proceeding directly from God or a god (divine love) b : being a deity (the divine savior) c : directed to a deity (divine worship) 2 a : supremely good : superb (the pie was divine) b : heavenly, godlike

So we are talking about superb, heavenly wines. I would guess this excludes your daily plonk. So it has to be something special, something godlike!

DIVINE = EXPENSIVE?

So, do you have to open your wallet a lot for divinity? Ooooh yes! At least for me.

For this person a divine wine is in general expensive (around 15 to 20 EUR and often a lot more, but there are exceptions. I had recently an extremely nice Nero d?Avola which we sell for about 11 EUR and which is just divine, I mean complex and elegant).

But be aware, this has not always been so (oh no) and can be explained (oh yes).

1. Education

Liking wines is also a bit understanding wines. Let?s compare it to your school period. When starting secondary school at 6 years, I guess you could write and read just a little bit. Well that?s why we have all those years at school, isn?t. If one would have dropped in your hands a book of Milan Kundera or Umberto Eco, you surely would not be able to appreciate it at that age (let stand to read it ;-)). Harry Potter, maybe.

Nowadays I -at least- can enjoy Milan Kundera a lot (this is a divine writer to me) and I enjoy a lot Harry Potter (which are great page turners, hey no divinity here, but a lot of pleasure).

Just the same with wines. You start off with Harry Potter wines, juicy, easy (to understand) wines and you work you?re way through to Milan Kundera wines, complex of an unseen elegance, difficult type of wines. And yes it is an education!

So it took me a couple (lot) of years to find my way to the complexity of e.g. a Barolo wine. Ooh so divine. And as most of us, I started of with a simple juicy wine, such as a Pays D?Oc merlot or ?(just fill in). Maybe at that moment these were divine wines, but now they are no longer divine. Hey these type of wines can be pleasing and sometimes very pleasing. And it makes me smile when I find a wine in the ?below 6 EUR category? that is great. Price quality ratio is important?but for GODLIKE wines, I like to get my stuff in the higher price ranges.

2. Learning To Appreciate

Another comparison can be made with classic music. As a little child I hated it. When my parents turned on some classic stuff it was the time to run of yelling to my room. Now I love it. I enjoy an evening out at the opera and had some really divine moments over there! If you have seen ?La Traviata? I guess you would understand what I?m talking about.

Again, just the same with wine. You need to learn appreciate it, and maybe you need also some age, some (live) experience. And maybe the sooner you start with wine the sooner you can appreciate the difficult (read DIVINE) wines.

3. Appreciation And Education

Learning to appreciate is of course closely linked with education. In order to be able to appreciate, you need to learn, to understand how a wine is made, how it obtains its complexity. And to train?yes to train your nose, your taste.

I?m heavy pro some kind of ?sniffing and tasting? course at school. It is one of our senses we do not learn to use. If you don?t believe, do the test: just try to catch some smells blind, very difficult thing to do.

So one tip on how to appreciate DIVINE wines: sniff, taste and sniff, taste and sniff, taste and? You can try to sniff a lot of things, just go to your local market and sniff the flowers, the food or step in your garden and sniff the trees, the leaves, the grass, ? You will notice that after a while your nose gets trained and you will pick up far more easier smells (yeah, also the bad ones ;-)).

THE MOMENT

And divinity is also very largely dependent on the moment. Something that proceeds from God or a god doesn?t come 24/7.

So there are this special moments when every puzzle piece fits in and when you drink some great wine at such moments, you will remember. The grazy thing is that such wines could also be very simple wines. Thus, the exception to my rule that divine wines need to be expensive.

I still remember a trip with school to Rome where we drank an Est!, Est!!, Est!!! di Montefiascone, actually a quite simple wine, but with a lot of college boys combined with an incredible time in Italy, this turned out just as such a memorable moment.

Points that are in advantage of the above theory are of course that I didn?t had any wine education yet!

There are some moments I just can remember because of the great feeling of that moment combined with an incredible wine.

CONCLUSION

For me, the aspects that influence the divinity of wine are thus the following:

  • Education
  • Learning to appreciate
  • The combination of the two above
  • The moment
  • And because of these aspects, I often end up with a wine that is in the higher price range. What can I do about it? I?m just a product of my education?

    Some last tip for you wine lovers. If you start with wine and you desire to beef up your wine cellar, do not, I repeat, do not buy too many of the first wines you love, you will see that your taste will change, that you will (learn to) appreciate other (read more complex) wines. And that a great moment isn?t easy to repeat?even with that same great wine!

    And on that bombshell?.I?ll go to my cellar and get me a divine wine.

    Bart Van Honst? is a passionate wine lover and enthusiastic wine trader at WineRoute who specializes in Italian wines and loves to bring you the stories behind the wine. Always looking for some new hidden gems from every wine country. Next to this he is also teaching wine classes and WSET advanced certificate holder.

    Check out his company at http://www.wineroute.be


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    Thursday, December 11, 2008

    Pressing Fresh Flowers

    Floral craft and floral d?cor are avocations which if passionately followed can become and addiction of a lifetime. Some floral crafts are pressing fresh flowers, waxing fresh flowers and drying fresh flowers. The easy thing about any floral art is just to have the knowledge to begin with and since none of these crafts are time consuming, you can easily squeeze this into your busy schedules - at work and even at home. We will concentrate on pressing fresh flowers.

    This floral craft is the easiest of all. You have to carefully select the fresh flower you want to press. It's important that the flower is not wilting. Bring the flower home and quickly put them inside your refrigerator or an ice chest to keep them fresh while you organize your pressing material. For pressing you would require a newspaper sheet, a thick heavy book - preferably a dictionary or a telephone directory / yellow page etc., and some heavy objects weighing about 20 lbs. or above.

    This done, take out the flowers from the refrigerator and put them in the newspaper fold in such a manner that all the petals spread out without folding. Next put the upper fold of the newspaper over the flower and open the dictionary or telephone directory from the middle and place the newspaper inside. Close the dictionary/directory and put the heavy weights over the dictionary. The pressing process takes about 3 days, so make sure you do it at a place which will remain untouched for three days. Once the flower is dry and pressed, you can do many a things with them, make greeting cards, use them in an arrangement, art work for wall or your dining table or even that tiny corner for your office place or even designing a perfect gift for someone you love.

    Fresh Flowers provides detailed information on Fresh Flowers, Fresh Cut Flowers, Fresh Flower Arrangements, Wholesale Fresh Flowers and more. Fresh Flowers is affiliated with Names Of Spring Flowers.


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    Thursday, December 4, 2008

    Vigilante Dilemna


    Vigilantes will usually be one of two kinds: crime control vigilantes; or social control vigilantes. The crime control vigilante group seeks to punish those whom they believe are factually guilty of criminal wrongs (e.g. thieves, outlaws, fugitives from justice). Their target might be personally motivated, but limited to citizens arrest as they're encountered. The social control vigilante group seeks to repair some transgression in the social order that threatens to affect the communal quality of life, values. The social control group is probably the most dangerous, as they affect mind control. Example, suggesting that violent music lyrics or games break down the entire society.


    When someone has motive to cleanse impure elements of the populace, it's a semantic hop from vigilante, to Nazi. Vigilantes regard the criminals and people they target as living outside the social bonds and communal ties that hold our society together. It's not so much that they dehumanize their target, but that the target represents an alien enemy that must be defended against. The target must also be punished, and punished outside the law. Any and all legal matters on the subject are seen as unnecessary intrusions on the basic freedom that all communities enjoy to protect themselves. Zimring (2004) says that the vigilante mindset is the opposite of the due process mindset. Vigilante thinking is precisely the opposite of any notion of fairness, fair play, or a chance for acquittal.


    Vigilantes do not care to wait for the police to finish their investigation, and they care less about any court's determination of proof. What they do care about is justice -- quick, final, cost-effective justice. To a vigilante, punishment should be inflicted upon those deserving of it at the first opportunity, no waiting, and the more severe the punishment, the better. These are all romantic notions that feed an appetite for punishment more than an appetite for vengeance.


    Some of the more positive recent examples of vigilantism include the

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    Wednesday, November 26, 2008

    Aggregate Inventory Management

    This article is also available on our website: PROACTION ? Generating Best Practices. It is an excerpt of a paper originally written by George Miller, Founder of PROACTION. It has been modified and updated by Paul Deis, PROACTION CEO.

    Overview



    In spite of the great advances in industrial management in areas such as JIT, Flow Manufacturing, Lean Manufacturing, MRP/MRPII, ERP and Supply Chain Management, and now, Electronic Commerce, inventory investment management continues to be a major issue for many organizations. Installing the latest software and mouthing the most popular buzzwords is no guarantee of good inventory management. As with almost all Best Practices, it is the effective use of available tools by properly educated and trained people that creates the desired result.



    This paper covers how to set up and maintain Aggregate Inventory Management for improved investment and operations management. It is a ?macro,? top-down approach that complements a company?s ?micro? SKU (part number) level management techniques.



    Definition, Goal and Objective



    ?Definition-- the APICS Dictionary defines Aggregate Inventory Management as ?Establishing the overall levels of inventory desired and implementing controls to ensure that individual replenishment decisions achieve this goal.?



    It includes:



    ?How to assess overall investment levels and set targets.

    ?How to identify inventory investment level ?drivers? and help control them

    ?How to link aggregate inventory management ?macro? strategy to ?micro? controls and develop accountability

    ?Performance measurements

    ?Specific techniques, such as ABC analysis, control parameters, inventory buildup charts, and input-output control.



    ?Goal-- Helps manage assets and make money.



    ?Objective-- Optimize inventory levels within the parameters of service, cost, logistics, process and investment objectives/constraints. Inventory management should be exercised to keep the lowest level of inventory consistent with achieving the objectives. Too much inventory reduces Return on Investment and Return on Assets (lower profits). It also tends to increase expenses, in the form of interest payments, handling and storage, management, damage, loss, obsolescence, tracking, taxes, insurance, etc.



    Although most managers, accountants and taxing authorities regard inventory as an asset, treating it as such for operational purposes may create liabilities. You have probably heard stories about factories working to ?keep people busy? or maximize ?efficiency? and other similar nonsense. If they are making inventory that is not needed now, they are often wasting money. If they work just to keep people busy, they are still consuming material, energy and other resources that may not earn adequate profits. They may use resources that could better be used for more immediate and profitable needs. If inventory is deployed improperly, it may create liabilities. A customer of one of our clients had branch managers who would ?hoard? products at their remote branches so that they ?wouldn?t run out.? This created an excess of material in the wrong places.



    How to Assess Inventory Investment Requirements



    Survey



    First, understand market, customer needs and service expectations; your own company needs, expectations, process, abilities; supplier abilities and mindset; industry norms and mindset; world-class best practices.



    From this, you should learn how fast and reliably customers expect to get their shipments, what is involved to get raw materials and production completed, what the best in the industry are doing and plan to do, and what might be possible. For instance, if all competitors are shipping from stock, then you will either need to duplicate that feat, or determine how to manufacture very fast, or convince customers that your product is so great or so cheap that it is in their interest to wait while you make it to order. Or, you might figure out how to procure better or manufacture better in a way that allows you to carry less inventory.



    The result of this step is to establish what industry inventory standards might be and what is possible. Make sure you have an ?apples-to-apples? comparison: there may be significant differences among companies. For example: One company might stock finished goods, another one may sell it to another division or to a distributor.



    Measure Current and Historical Inventory Levels and Performance



    Measure current and historical company inventory levels and performance, not just overall statistics, but broken down into levels of responsibility, commodity, area, type (raw material, work-in-process, finished goods, consignment) and market. Do this to help isolate figures down to levels of accountability and to show inventory investment performance by market, process or even product line. You may find that your systems are unable to do that, meaning that it is past time to make changes to them, whether that be to replace them, modify them or put in separate inventory tracking and control systems (recommended as a last resort).



    The result of this step is to establish how your own company is doing and has been doing with inventory management.



    Establish Performance Metrics



    Establish performance metrics - Inventory is usually measured in currency value, such as U.S. Dollars ($USD). Another, complementary way is to measure it in velocity. For example, you might measure it in ?turns? which relates to how many times it moves or ?turns over? per year. For example, if there was an average of $100 in inventory in the last year and annual cost of sales for the last year was $2000, that would be calculated as cost of sales ($2000)/average inventory ($100)= 20 turns.



    More turns (or ?turnover?) is usually good, provided that cost, service or quality aren?t unacceptably affected. If they are, the answer is not simply to increase inventory, but to try to improve the underlying ?drivers? influencing it instead, if possible and cost-effective. There are variations of the turnover (this term should not be confused with the European ?turnover,? which usually refers to total sales for a period) formula, mainly in addressing how to calculate average cost of goods sold or inventory.



    Sometimes, turns are calculated by comparing full sales value with average inventory cost or even equivalent sales value. To maintain easily comparable figures, state all numbers in fully ?burdened? costs, using industry standard overhead/burden calculations, unless this is contrary to the standards of your industry or locality. Hopefully, future standard world accounting practices may help to reduce confusion in this area.



    It is becoming more common to measure inventory performance in days coverage instead of turnover. People seem to relate to it better.



    Inventory and sales may also be commonly measured in more industry-friendly terms, such as tons (steel), bushels (corn), housing units (construction or real estate) or ounces (gold).



    A further refinement is to stratify the inventory by ?Quality,? as asserted by Gary Gossard of IQR International. The idea of classifying inventory as active, slow-moving or obsolete has been around for a long time. Constantly track it, to highlight any change in inventory quality or condition, such as a new requisition for an item which is already in excess or obsolete. The active, weighted ?good? inventory not exceeding your ?days coverage? target, divided by the total inventory, multiplied by 100, it equals the Inventory Quality Ratio (IQR) number. 33-40% is typical for mediocre companies. 66% is considered pretty good.



    All of these numbers can be time-phased, to show changes over time, due, for example, to seasonal supply and demand changes, or planned improvements. These can then be applied in still more detail to the appropriate organizations, product lines, trade channels, warehouses, planning groups or other responsible entities and then monitored for results.



    The numbers should be capable of being ?drilled? down or up, from the entire enterprise level to an individual SKU (Stock-Keeping Unit) transaction or part number. Managers or employees should be able to look at total figures for their areas of responsibility and readily identify specific problem areas down to lower levels and finally to specific items, policies, orders and decisions that accounted for them.



    Here are typical Inventory System Metrics, which should be broken down by organization/responsibility, area, type, commodity, market/product, and time phased, with targets and actual values:



    ?Inventory Turnover or Days Coverage

    ?Inventory value or other unit of measure, such as tons

    ?Inventory ?Quality,? including IQR and summaries of amounts of each type

    ?Customer service level, expressed how the CUSTOMER perceives it



    ABC Analysis



    Perform an ABC analysis, a simple, common and powerful tool for inventory management. It is based on Pareto?s law of ?80-20.? The most common approach is to calculate demand in units, preferably for future periods, then calculate the total usage value at cost for each item (total cost of sales multiplied by units required) for a given future period. If future demand data are not available, the next best thing is to use history, but this won?t work well for items with major swings in demand over time. Sequence these in descending value. Typically, the top 10 to 15% of items account for 75-85% of value (?A? items), the next 20-30% account for 10-20% of value (?B? items) and everything else accounts for the rest, about 60-70% of the items, usually about 5% of the total value (?C? items). Your inventory should be less than these percentages for the ?A? items, because they are much more tightly controlled and a little higher for B?s and significantly higher for C?s.



    Then compare the list to actual values in inventory, plus actual and planned commitments. The answers will often suggest immediate corrective actions!



    An ABC list suggests what to concentrate on to control most of the inventory investment. What it doesn?t tell you is that being short of a $.10 screw might prevent the shipment of a $5,000,000 radar unit, so ensure that there are control systems for all items, just control the expensive ones much more carefully. Err on the side of caution for the cheaper items, allowing a safety stock coverage or ?two bin? approach to avoid stock outs, but keep inventory from getting out of control.



    Create an Inventory Buildup Chart



    Another good analysis tool is the inventory buildup chart. Use a standard x-y coordinate chart. Plot the cost build-up over time, by product group, with cost on the ?y? (vertical axis) and time on the ?x? (horizontal) axis. Normally, raw material cost accumulates first over time, followed by labor and overhead application. Allow for safety stocks, lot size inventory, transit stock, defects/rework/scrap, and normal finished goods and distribution pipeline stocking. Show the affect of consignment arrangements. Some people also treat accounts receivable as sort of a de facto inventory, until it is paid for. Once this chart is completed, show it around for shock value. Presented correctly, it will really make people think about the effect of constraints and decisions (just another form of constraint) on inventory. Then, work on changing the rules!



    One company had a 14 month buildup curve, which was reduced to 4 months. At another company, the longest lead time material item accounted for only 20% of the product cost, so stocking only that item, instead of finished goods or instead of only reacting to orders, enabled them to radically reduce the response time for orders by 70%. It also added the flexibility of being able to use that raw material to make a number of different end items.



    How to Identify and Control Inventory Drivers



    Inventory drivers are things that tend to make inventory go up or down. Identify them and you will have some clue of why inventory changes. Understanding them is the beginning of gaining control. I?ve stated things that would drive inventory up, e.g.: more SKU?s. I refrain from stating the obvious: doing the opposite would reduce inventory. e.g.: reduce SKU?s to reduce inventory.



    Key Drivers are covered briefly, as follows:



    Number of SKUs



    The more items you have, the more inventory you will need, in most cases. If you sell 500 widgets a year of A, then replace it with 250/year of A and 250 of B, you will probably need to carry more inventory. Why: demand and supply variability and total economic order quantities are likelier to be higher for 2 items than for one.



    The more SKU?s in a product, the harder it is to bring matched sets of parts together at the same time. Because there are multiple items, with multiple vendors, kept and routed through multiple places or paths, with more opportunity for delays, defects, etc, more inventory will be needed.



    The more operations there are and the longer that they take, the more inventory you will tend to have. More operations mean a longer supply chain. It may also mean differing lot sizes per operation and more places for delays and defects to occur. Process simplification helps reduce inventory.



    The more facilities that inventory passes in and out of, the further apart those are and the harder they are to reach and pass material in and out of, the more inventory you will tend to have.



    The more times inventory passes from the control of one system or organization to another and the less efficient the transfer is, the more inventory you will tend to have.



    Lot/Batch Sizes



    Lot/batch sizes greater than customer order delivery sizes tend to increase inventory. If customers order a product one at a time, but economics, handling or process considerations suggest that you make 1000 at a time, then you will have more inventory available than will be consumed per order, resulting in an accumulation of inventory. If you need to order things in cases, dozens, carloads, tons or weeks? supply, but they are needed downstream in the supply chain in smaller increments, you will tend to accumulate more inventory.



    The longer the lead time, the more inventory you tend to have. If something takes 16 weeks to get instead of 16 days, there is more inventory needed in process to cover the ?pipeline? time. Whether it belongs to you or your vendor, it is increasing somebody?s cost, which ultimately will affect your cost and your customer?s cost. Longer lead time also means more chance of running out or having something go wrong out while waiting for it, which is usually dealt with by having additional inventory.



    Carrying cost



    This refers to the cost of owning inventory. Let?s look at what goes into inventory ?cost of ownership?, frequently called the ?carrying cost? and expressed in terms of percent cost of inventory valuation per year of ownership. For example, a 25% carrying cost (typical) would indicate that it costs about $.25 to own each $1.00 of inventory each year. These costs consist of:



    ?Cost of money ? The cost of capital to the company or, in some cases the ?opportunity cost? or return that might be earned on the money by applying it productively elsewhere. The cost of money has ranged anywhere from 6% to 18% in the USA in the last 25 years. Obviously, this has a very significant impact on investment strategy.

    ?Obsolescence ? The risk of inventory never being used, or needing rework to make it usable, needs to be factored into the cost of owning INVENTORY. In theory (and practice), the larger the inventory is, and the longer it is held, the more likely engineering changes, customer preferences and technological changes will render that inventory unusable. In the clothing industry, it is not uncommon to see inventories depreciate as much as 90% when styles change. Certain portions of the electronics industry have problems with inventory becoming obsolete very quickly, due to technological changes.

    ?Shrinkage ? A portion of inventory becomes unavailable to the owner due to loss, damage, theft or spoilage. The longer inventory is there and the more there is, the more likely this is to happen. Steps to prevent it only raise carrying costs in other areas, such as security, climate control, better control systems, recruiting policies, etc.

    ?Quality Factors ? Allowances for yield, attrition, scrap and rework. This is really more of a function of the process than the amount of inventory invested and is more related to throughput, but is sometimes included as part of the aggregate inventory carrying cost.

    ?Technological or Price Obsolescence ? Prices don?t always go up. In fact, in industries such as electronics, prices often plummet due to constantly improving designs, product and process technology improvements. Therefore, it is desirable to minimize inventories in high-risk areas.

    ?Taxes ? There are two dimensions to this: 1) in some areas, a tax is levied on inventories, so the more inventory, the more tax is paid. 2) inventory is regarded as an asset by most accounting and tax rules. Therefore, increasing inventories shows ?profits? and profits are usually taxed, usually by multiple government entities.

    ?Insurance ? The cost of carrying insurance on inventory needs to be considered, as well as insuring the space, equipment, people and other resources needed to control it.

    ?Space ? Costly storage space sometimes occupies 25-30% of the total facility, when one considers raw material warehouses, stockrooms, work-in-process storage, receiving, shipping, outside warehouses, MRB and residual storage areas. Inventory reduction campaigns can help companies avoid the need to move to large facilities, or permit them to shut down or cut back existing facilities.

    ?Manpower ? All of this inventory needs people to order, receive inspect, record, move, count, store, retrieve, post it to the ledger, etc. People are the largest or second largest expense (behind material) for most manufacturers.

    ?Record Keeping Systems ? Software, procedures, equipment and paper must be used to track and control inventory.

    ?Material Handling/Storage Equipment ? Conveyors, fork lifts, bar code readers, scales, automated storage and retrieval systems, trucks, carts, bins, racks, shelves must all be purchased, leased, maintained and cared for.

    ?Physical Inventories, Reconciliations ? Must be conducted to ensure that inventories are properly accounted for and maintained.

    ?Transportation ? Must be provided to move inventory in and out of the facility, to vendors, within the facility, to different workstations and storage areas.

    ?Energy ? Heat, light, humidity control, air conditioning, refrigeration and fuel must be consumed to make all this happen.

    ?Inappropriate Lot Sizing - In inventory formulae, the carrying cost of inventory is often expressed as a flat percentage of the inventory value, for convenience of computations, but that is an oversimplification of reality. For instance, consider material handling/storage costs. Just because a dollar of inventory is added, doesn?t mean that carrying costs go up, say, $.02. In reality the costs would not usually go up in a direct proportion at all, but only when we had to pay for an additional expense, or make the next capital investment in equipment or space to accommodate the inventory. So actually, most of these costs are step functions, rather than continuous curves.

    We urge caution in the use of so-called EOQ (Economic Order Quantity) formulae in planning. While these can be useful guidelines in some cases, they can easily go awry and are hypersensitive to changes in carrying costs and order costs, which are usually no more than guesstimates, at best. We smile in amusement at PhD?s made or lost on the study of such arcane calculations, often failing to consider basic realities such as; how much space and money do we have, anyway? You can refer to Paul?s book, Production & Inventory Management in the Technological Age, pages 137 to 139 for a detailed explanation of why this lot sizing method is weak and should be used with caution.



    ?Supply variation-- refers to the reliability of the supplier to deliver the desired units in the needed quantity, at the right time, at an acceptable quality level. If this can?t be done reliably, then companies tend to carry a buffer (safety) stock to make up for the deficiencies in the supply system.



    ?Demand variation - refers to the ability to reliably forecast what the customer will require (whether that is an internal or an external customer). Lower reliability tends to encourage buffer (safety) stocks.



    ?Defects ?Extra inventory is often carried to allow for probable rejections. This is just a specialized form of safety stock for supply and demand buffering.



    ?Logistics constraints/transportation costs - This also sometimes falls under the heading of supply and demand variation and it certainly can affect it. For example, one of our clients transports parts by ocean freight to a plant in Portugal, or at least they do that if they don?t have to ship by air to get them there faster. Because ships traveling between economical ports only leave every few weeks, a 20 or 40 foot long container is the most practical shipping size. A certain amount of time is required for packing, transportation to the terminal, Loading, transport, unloading, customs and transport to the consignee. These are very real logistics constraints that must be built into the ?pipeline? portion of the inventory model.



    Another company studied ships fresh flowers from Latin America to the U.S. Air freight is the only feasible way to handle shipment, due to shelf life and care issues. It results in a shorter ?pipeline? and higher transportation costs, which end up either directly costed to inventory, or get rolled into overhead, or cost of sales?same ultimate effect.



    As unit costs rise, so will inventory, but the turns, or days coverage, will remain the same.



    How to set Inventory Targets



    After considering the current situation, drivers, and external situation, estimate what inventory levels should be, given certain sets of circumstances. There are impressive supply chain modeling tools to help you do this. Our experience is that developing an accurate detailed inventory behavior model is quite a chore to create and a major task to maintain, so we usually don?t. Normally working on projects with limited budgets, we study past behavior and focus on the main drivers, seeking to change a few with the greatest potential impact to achieve assigned objectives- sort of a ?delta? approach.



    Don?t let us talk you out of sophisticated modeling tools, though. They have their place. When there are very large amounts of money involved and/or tricky constraints to work around, modeling tools will sometimes help. Many of the detailed control methods presented below contain elements of modeling.



    Warning: Calculating or modeling inventory behavior solely by using the rules and parameters will nearly always be wrong. Why: If, for example, you assume that inventory will be an average of ? times the order quantity plus safety stock, you?ll most often be wrong. Actual supply and demand variability will differ. Defective items/customer returns may result in buildup. Unmatched sets of parts due to shortages will result in buildup. Generally, it is higher than the model would indicate.



    Even the best laid plans can go off track if something changes unexpectedly- a major customer cuts orders, unexpected defects occur, requiring ad-hoc reaction, rather than careful, deliberate, advanced planning.



    There are two major directions to approach inventory management from-- Top-Down and Bottom-Up. Most successful companies use a combination of both.



    ?Top-Down ? this is the ?macro? approach. Start with a goal, objectives, ABC (Pareto) analysis of estimated or historical usage, knowledge of overall processes and lead times. Set overall targets, by business unit at a minimum, preferably at a lower level, so that middle managers or even individual supervisors, work teams or administrative control personnel might be held more accountable. It takes more effort as the control is moved to a lower level.



    Establish a tracking system, such as actual inventory versus target level. Compare numbers to actual sales, forecast. Monitor commitments and production plans against targets... Hold managers accountable for results and make them come back with reasons why targets cannot be met and solutions to the problems. Motivate them to solve underlying problems. Help them with problems outside of their scope of authority.



    Another good tracking tool is Input-Output Control. Simply build a time-phased table of planned starting and ending inventories, showing starting, input, output and results. Then task employees to make the ?delta?s? happen and track the actual values per period.



    ?Bottom-Up?Look at each item- determine cost, lead times, supply and demand reliability/variability, defect rate, transportation, storage, set-up/batch size considerations, buffers, process, handling considerations. Then set the proper planning methods and control parameters, to either default down from the enterprise, product line, commodity or department level to default down, or just establish them at the item/part level.



    This takes a lot more effort than merely exercising Top-Down control, but it can deliver better results.



    Educate and train people in inventory management and control approaches.



    How to Control Inventory



    After you do all your research and analysis, set targets and establish your control system, then you get to the hard part - actually making it happen.



    Quick hits - Simply establishing the aggregate targets, understanding drivers, educating and training, setting up responsibility, establishing accountability and tracking results usually has significant effects. I have seen greater than 50% reductions from this alone. This can be the cheapest, fastest way of making some change happen, but it has a limited effect, because the approach lacks detail and won?t make major permanent changes in the ways that the business works without additional actions.



    What is ?Control?? - Control means to make something happen or to know why if it doesn?t, so that something might be done about it. Using that definition, there is no such thing as an uncontrollable situation. Someone once told me that he couldn?t control service inventory, because of unreliable vendor lead times. Nonsense! Unreliable lead times might be controlled by several strategies, such as: multiple sourcing, re-sourcing, safety stock, exhorting supplier to improve performance, ordering sooner, improving your own planning and reaction times, changing designs, alternate routing, training customers to order differently, having vendors stock raw materials. At least some of these would work in almost any situation.



    Detailed Control Methods



    Most of the detailed control methods that follow have some inventory management rationale built in, but it must be properly set-up and tuned for best use. Provide and implement control tools such as:

    ?Order on demand- Order only to fill customer orders. This is the most direct, intuitive method and tends to avoid excess inventory. It will only work if it can meet customers? lead time and cost expectations. It works best for custom ordering and when it will result in delivery service meeting customers? expectations.

    In most cases, organizations must anticipate customer wishes to be successful. This often involves committing inventory in advance, to be able to deliver in time and to produce in economical quantities. So other techniques are often used, such as:

    ?Reorder point- Keep a certain amount available and on order to help ensure that it is available when needed, but not in excessive quantities.

    ?Min-max- This is a modified form of order point, with upper and lower limits established.

    ?Kanban- This is a more sophisticated type of reorder point. Instead of having a single order point, with a relatively large and lumpy order quantity, one replenishes a smaller quantity every time it is consumed. This method was popularized by its success at the Toyota Motor Company in Japan.

    ?MRP (Material Requirements Planning) - formalized in the 1950?s by Dr. Joseph Orlicky, MRP uses a master schedule developed from a demand analysis of orders, forecast and production plans. It then considers available inventory, parts requirements calculated from the bill of materials, then factors in open purchase orders, lead times, logistical considerations, safety stock and other ordering rules, to develop a materials purchasing and factory schedule to meet planned and actual demand.

    In current times, a company?s MRP system is often a subset of its ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) or Supply Chain Management System, which incorporates MRP as only one portion of an overall ?Enterprise? level system. MRP is not always the most appropriate approach for all environments. In recent years, it has been modified successfully, by incorporating techniques of Kanban, JIT, Lean Manufacturing, Repetitive Scheduling, Theory of Constraints and others.

    ?DRP (Distribution Requirements Planning) ? this is a specialized form of MRP, for distribution networks. It uses the same principles, but may also consider the dynamics of multi-level distribution networks, service level planning, cross-docking, shipment staging, truck loading, inventory deployment optimization and other considerations.

    ?Supply Chain Planning/Optimization- This is the next level of sophistication for MRP and DRP. It creates a model of the supply chain, which may include suppliers, manufacturing, various levels of distribution and even monitoring of inventory through one or more levels of customer ownership.

    ?Repetitive scheduling- Designed for continuous flow production.

    ?Process monitoring/control - Control of an ongoing, often continuous, process, usually by monitoring and controlling process parameters, such as raw material properties, desired attributes, temperature, pressure, speeds, viscosity, finish, byproducts, etc.

    ?Safety stock/safety lead time - Most of the above techniques might be enhanced by building in supply and demand buffers to allow for fluctuations/uncertainty of what will be needed and when and what supply will arrive and when. It can be done by adding on a fixed quantity or time coverage. The trouble with this approach is that people tend to make the wrong allowances, usually on the high side. This inflates inventory, may actually confuse priorities and use up needed capacity, by working on things not actually needed. The best approach is to try to reduce process variation for supply and demand, so that less safety stock is needed.

    ?Vendor-Managed Inventory - a form of delegation that is proving to be quite popular and sometimes very successful. One provides the supplier with demand and logistics data and makes him responsible for ensuring that the right quantities are available at the right time and place for you to meet demand. It needs cooperation, monitoring and common interests and objectives to be successful.

    ?Input/Output - Don?t forget to implement the input-output method, described earlier as a tool to help make reductions.



    Pitfalls of using control parameters



    With the use of MRP, MRPII, ERP and now ?Supply Chain Management ? systems, there are more opportunities to improve inventory management, but also more chances to lose control! Unless there is a clearly stated Aggregate Inventory Management approach imbedded in the system, through education, training and parameters, yes- I said parameters!, you will likely fail.



    War story from George Miller: ?Years ago, I worked for a specialty niche MRPII/ERP company. After I left for the consulting world, a customer of that company called to inform me that the ?software wasn?t working? and summoned me to come and help them. After only a day on site, I told them that the problem was that the system was carrying out their instructions at the speed of light, spewing forth recommendations to acquire inventory, based on their unrealistic parameters. You see, most of these systems have various ?gauges? and ?levers,? to set control parameters to tailor the operation of the system to the company, products and process. These might be set, for example, system-wide, but can usually be overridden at the business unit, plant, department, product line and/or part number level. Each level normally defaults down to the lower level, unless you override it.



    ?For example, they used unrealistically long process times in the item master planning records and had safety stock and scrap factors planned at multiple levels in the bill of material, ?pyramiding? (increasing) demand calculations considerably. No surprise then, except to them, that they were well upon their way to doubling their inventory investment in record time, without significant benefits. The prescription was:

    1.The management team to get personally involved in setting the system parameters.

    2.Educate employees in inventory management concepts and train them in proper use of system tools.

    3.Establish and monitor a special report to assess the effect of ?order modifier? parameters, such as safety stock, scrap and attrition factors, order planning method, order quantity rules, order multiples, lead time, review time, inspection time.?

    Conclusion: Inventory can be systematically managed. It doesn?t happen on its own. Needed is a rationale, a plan, education, training, organization, tools, policies, procedures and management willpower.



    References:



    1.APICS Dictionary, 7th Edition, APICS, Falls Church, VA

    2.Production and Inventory Control, Second Edition, George W. Plossl, Prentice Hall, 1985 (originally 1967)

    3.Production and Inventory Management, Second Edition, Fogarty, Blackstone, Hoffman, Southwestern Publishing, Cincinnati, Ohio, 1991

    4.Inventory Reduction, George Miller, 1990.

    5.IQR Manual, IQR International (Proprietary document), San Juan Capistrano, CA



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    Monday, November 24, 2008

    Ailing Business Needs a Tonic or How To Stay Fresh in the Biz

    So your store has changed the window display and all the mannequins. Colour and seasonal decorations have spruced up the walls and display units. The new arrivals have been steamed and strategically placed throughout the store. The outdoor pots have been refreshed and the welcome mat is new.

    But it?s not only the merchandising that needs a new change ? business practices ? all aspects of business ? need to be re-invigorated to stay healthy and profitable. Business becomes stale! And that is often reflected in sales and in staff morale. If staff isn?t charged at all times, sales will decrease. What is the antidote? A tonic! According to the dictionary, a tonic produces a sense of well-being; a medicine to cure the ailing ? to increase energy, health and strength. Every business needs a tonic at times.

    Checklist for ailing retailers: List the things that are unhealthy in the business and then fix them:

    Ailing staff -

    First and foremost, re-energize your staff! A sluggish staff hurts sales and profits. Empower the staff. Improve morale. Many morale-boosting programs do double duty and succeed in empowering staff also. Take the time to isolate the reasons for low morale and address each issue. Your staff is worth the time and money. List ways to improve staff morale, including training courses, seminars, contests, parties, thank-yous, and promotions. And don?t forget that change itself will stimulate the staff ? staff meetings will encourage new ideas to seed and flourish.

    Increase the extras in the back room: new coffee or espresso maker in the staff room; flowers on the counter (better yet ? empower the staff to buy them); stock bottles of water in the fridge; coupons for dry-cleaning. Sometimes, it?s the little things that count and make a difference. Does your staff make the daily schedule? Is the schedule somewhat flexible or totally rigid? Maybe a staff member would like a few hours off per month to watch his or her child play a sport after school. When you are flexible with a staff member, their loyalty and respect is returned. Your goal is to recreate a workplace environment that is the envy of the competition. Treat staff well, pay them fairly and consistently, and have fun. First and foremost, remember that a happy staff welcomes customers with a joy and passion that cannot be duplicated. Happy customers mean increased sales and profits.

    Ailing merchandise/product ?

    Same old, same old! Customers are bored, staff is bored, and the buyer is bored. Translation - low sales. In today?s competitive marketplace, trends change faster than the seasons and the store that doesn?t keep pace with the newest trends, the latest fashions, and the top colours of the season will slowly see their bottom line erode. It takes a lot of time and effort to keep abreast of changes in the marketplace but it is a vital component of any business, fashion or not. Attend trade shows, extend buying trips to visit other competitive stores, hold focus groups of young and hip adults, watch TV shows that cater to your target market and take notice of advertising on TV and the radio. Start to make notes throughout the season. Note what your target market is wearing in the big cities and what stores they are frequenting. Observe them at the counter.

    What are they buying? Watch and learn. Take note of the stock market and the business trends ? what are the issues that are relevant. How can this information transform your business? The savvy retailer ensures that they are aware of the trends in their business, and ensures that their store is stocked to reflect this. The customer will flock to any store that is setting the trends ? not just fashion trends, but any product trend. Make it your store?s goal to be a trend-setter and the staff will love you for it. Employees want to work for a winning retailer and customers want to shop there, too.

    Ailing product displays

    Since we know that eighty percent of sales are driven by only twenty percent of our customers, then it makes sense that the customer who is a repeat customer (your preferred customer) wants to see excitement each and every visit to your store. Has your store invested in new fixtures and displays lately? Have you thought about re-designing your layout and totally changing the look or ambience of your store? How many years has it been since you?ve totally updated the look of the store? If more than seven years, it is time to re-invest in the ?bones? of the store. If you are thinking of making changes, also consider that the ?branding? of the store, the logo, the print material, the packaging, labels, etc. must be reconsidered for an update. If you update the merchandise and the displays, then it makes sense that the packaging should be updated also. If you are a small store, think about investing in the services of a merchandising expert. A new perspective can make a huge difference. Sometimes an ?outsider? can move a display and sales increase immediately. An expert can make adjustments to the flow of the layout and a once awkward layout becomes more efficient and convenient. Point of sales can increase because the cash counter was moved a few feet.

    Change the window displays more often and customer traffic increases. Better lighting can make a world of difference. Add more behind the counter and in the back of the store, and add accent lighting to major wall displays and product displays will ?pop?. Add promotional posters (that have been enlarged) to the wall, and hang framed photos with black and white mattes to highlight the products and merchandise. Ask suppliers for free promotional materials and inquire if their art department can help you with design ideas. Suppliers want to help you. Exciting and innovate displays will increase sales and profits.

    Ailing store policies ?

    Are you still stuck in the fifties? If your hours do not reflect the lifestyle of your customer, you are losing them every time a customer comes to your store and it is closed. Store hours should reflect the customer?s needs, not the store owner?s. Do you still offer a layaway plan? Are you aware that most stores have dropped this service due to the rising costs of holding merchandise for an indefinite period? Do you offer gift cards? Studies show that stores that offer gift cards increase sales. Do you offer generous and flexible refunds? Most of the big box stores offer full refunds, no questions asked. If you are losing business, you must re-consider your store refund policy.

    Ailing marketing strategies ?

    Do you update your marketing plan on a yearly basis, or do you just dust off last year?s plan and re-use it? The savvy retailer is constantly updating its? marketing strategies and introducing new ideas, fun promotions, fun contests, parties, and exciting advertising plans. After the store?s merchandise has been updated and the look of the store is re-newed, then start spreading the news. Send out press releases and contact the media. Promote the store?s new look with a fundraiser for your favorite charity. Send out postcards to your preferred customer list and have a party! After all, your store has something to celebrate!

    New competition in town?

    Be proactive, not reactive! As soon as you hear the news that a new competitor is coming to your town, get the tonic out! Plan a huge celebration of your new look, new merchandise, and newly motivated staff as soon as possible. Set the date of the celebration a week before the competition?s grand opening. And ensure that the promotional activities continue well into the month. Since the competition will plan a grand opening, you might as well outsmart them. Remind your customers that you are a winning retailer.

    Ailing Target Market ?

    Have you thought about who your customer is lately? Have you adapted to their maturing age? Everything evolves ? and that means so does your business. What has your business evolved into lately? Become aware of the statistics of your own business. Do you still have a significant percentage of the market? Has it eroded? What changes have impacted your target market? Can you re-focus your business or diversify? Should you close the ailing portion of your business and concentrate on a different market? Just remember that if your target market changes, then your merchandise and marketing strategies must evolve also.

    So the next time that you notice sales have decreased, ask yourself if the business needs a tonic. Better yet, don?t wait for sales to decrease. Have monthly staff meetings and ask the constant question?how can we be better! How can we change! How can we re-energize!

    So what?s the tonic? Renew! Renew! Renew!

    Re-energize your staff, add new merchandise, eliminate ailing products, source new suppliers, add new markets, and re-new marketing strategies?one simple word?change! Alter, adapt, re- focus. Hang tulips or daffodils! Do things differently, and increase the health and strength of the business.

    Marilyn Cahill is a newly-retired retailer. Marilyn has owned two children's clothing stores and a home-based gift-basket business. She is an avid reader, writer, and gardener. She is passionate about retailing and customer service.


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